DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/03 11:22
Midday Corn, Soybeans Lower; Wheat Higher
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 2 to 5 cents lower, and
wheat is 4 to 8 cents higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 285 points. The dollar
index is 60 points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are
firmer with crude 1.30 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are mixed with gold down 1.70.
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday as early buying faded;
new-crop trade is holding up better. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with
unleaded bouncing a bit as the energy complex finds support on talk of
production cuts overall, but we are still a ways from finding a current level
of demand. Corn basis will likely remain sideways for now with much of the
slowdowns priced in at this point. Rains will keep early fieldwork slow with
warmer weather likely next week. China bought 567,000 metric tons (mt) of
mostly new-crop corn. On the May contract, support is the lower Bollinger band
at $3.23 and resistance the 20-day moving average at $3.50.
Soybean futures are 2 to 5 cents lower with early buying fading and meal
weakness weighing on the market. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 lower and oil is 20 to
30 points higher. South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions
the biggest concern, while the real remains very weak with some revision lower
on production due to late dryness. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn
to provide an acreage incentive with the price ratio failing to extend past 2.4
with time running down to make changes. The May soybean chart support is the
gap at $8.41 with resistance the 20-day moving average at $8.63.
Wheat futures are 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with active trade getting
back Thursday's losses overnight, but continuing to struggle to sustain
overnight action as freezing temps moved across the Plains. There has been talk
of new Middle East import tenders short term, but otherwise world export news
is lacking. KC is at a 78-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade
continuing, while Minneapolis is -23 with narrower action this week. The May KC
chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.62, with resistance the $5.13
upper Bollinger Band.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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