DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/12 11:36
Wheat, Corn Higher at Midday
Row crops mixed at midday, and wheat firmer.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 450. The
interest rate products are closed for Veterans Day. The dollar index is 60
higher. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.55. Livestock trade is mixed.
Precious metals are lower with gold down $4.10.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher to open the week with light two-sided
action at midday. Ethanol margins will remain poor which should continue to
work weekly production runs lower deeper into winter with ethanol futures
edging marginally higher today. The weekly export inspections are expected to
be in the range of 700,000 to 1.0 million metric tons when released tomorrow
due to the holiday. The weekly crop progress report should show harvest
entering the final stretch. Basis will likely remain fairly sideways in the
near term. On the December chart support is at the 10, 20, and 100-day moving
averages in the $3.67-3.70 area with resistance the recent $3.79 high.
Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with rangebound action
continuing to start the week. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is 5 to 15
cents higher. Crush margins remain strong, which is probably the biggest
supportive factor as the export program remains slow, and South America is off
to a good start. The weekly export inspections are expected to be in the range
of 800,000 to 1.1 million metric tons range when released tomorrow. The weekly
crop progress should show harvest effectively complete. Support is found at the
$8.75 area where we find the 10, 20, and 100-day moving averages. Resistance is
up at $9 then the $9.06 3-month high.
Wheat trade is 3 to 13 cents higher at midday with Chicago trade the upside
leader and Kansas City the laggard. Euro prices bounced with cold stress
reported in France. Kansas City was the weakest the past two sessions with
nothing supportive on the WASDE report which has the market again testing the
lows. Wheat is back to near oversold conditions which should trigger some
support. The dollar scoring new highs again overnight will limit upside again.
Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the range of 400,000 to 600,000
metric tons. The weekly crop progress report will be expected to show good to
excellent around 50%, with planting and emergence still lagging. On the
December Kansas City chart we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at
$4.82, and resistance the 10-day at $4.98.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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