DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/22 11:26
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans lead at midday, with corn and wheat mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower; the Dow futures are down 25. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 21 lower. Energies are
flat to higher with crude up 0.10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals
are mixed with gold up $3.40.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade once again testing
upside resistance with trade not able to consolidate above it yet. News will be
light until next Friday when the quarterly grain stocks report will be
released, so harvest results are what the market should be talking about next
week with potential disruptions from rain in the west. Some hedge pressure is
likely going to show up this afternoon ahead of the harvest weekend. Both
better than expected and worse than expected have been in market discussions.
Ethanol margins remain stable in the near term with futures slightly higher
this morning. On the December chart support is at the $3.44 1/4 August low with
resistance at $3.53, where we find the 10-day and 20-day moving averages with a
high of #3.56 1/4 seen this morning.
Soybean trade is 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade testing upside
resistance with a close over $9.79 needed to getting the market more excited.
Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Trade is
watching demand and harvest results closely as Mexico bought 190,000 metric
tons to get us to nine sales announcements in 10 days. Yield numbers as harvest
progresses should give us some direction the rest of the week before rains slow
things into next week. South American planting should improve into the
beginning of October with some Brazilian dryness expected to continue. On the
November chart support is at the 10-day at $9.67, then the 20-day at $9.59.
Resistance is at the $9.79 200-day, which we are above at midday.
Wheat trade is 4 lower to 4 higher at midday with spring wheat leading after
winter wheat sits back from new highs made this morning. Australia continues to
see some struggles as the crop emerges from dormancy, while the large Russian
crop will continue to keep pressure on the ability of the US to compete on the
world market. Egypt is starting to look around for cargos again with the
advantage remaining with the Black Sea. Dry conditions on the plains will
likely continue to slow planting progress. On the December Kansas City contract
20-day at $4.40 is support the 50-day at 4.67 is resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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