DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/01 11:04
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday
Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 5 cents higher, and wheat is
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 340. The dollar index is 58
points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude
down $0.80. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are firmer with gold up
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade finding support after
the broad selling Monday as the December contract went into delivery with
spread trade remaining flat and the export wire quiet. Ethanol margins will see
a benefit from the corn pull back, but demand issues will remain front and
center with driving demand likely to slip further short term, while OPEC
debates policy regarding cuts coming forward. Basis remains generally strong.
On the March contract support is the 20-day at $4.23 with the lower Bollinger
Band at $4.08 as the next level down with the fresh high scored at $4.39 1/2
scored Monday, which is also where the upper Bollinger Band is found.
Soybean trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with steady spread action
after the Monday pullback with trade looking for a bullish spark as the export
wire has been quiet, and South American weather holds some short term rain in
the forecast for most. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points
lower. South America has rains moving into much of central and southern Brazil
and Argentina short term, with dry pockets and high temps still a worry. Basis
remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship
the needed export bushels with freight issues remaining in play. The January
chart has resistance at the fresh high at the fresh high at 12.00 scored last
week, with the upper Bollinger ba Wheat nd at $12.25, with support the 20-day
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade looking to continue the
back and forth action within the recent range with more moisture for the
central to eastern Plains on tap and early selling fading again. The dollar
remains at the lower end of the range but hasn't shifted export competitiveness
yet. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin for the most part,
with little change in overall conditions there going into dormancy. The western
Plains look to mostly remain dry short term. KC is at 38-cent discount to
Chicago on the March with active trade continuing, with Minneapolis at -32.
Weekly crop progress had emergence at 92% vs. 91% on average, with good to
excellent up 3% to 46% good to excellent, and poor to very poor down 3% to 18%
poor to very poor. Kansas City March chart resistance is the 20-day at $5.61
which we are back below after jumping above it on Friday, and support is the
lower Bollinger Band at $5.48 which we are back above.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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