DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/24 11:50
Grain Trade Mixed at Midday
Mixed trade is seen at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are softer with the Dow futures down by triple
digits. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is unchanged.
Energies are mixed with crude up 0.20. Livestock trade is mixed led by live
cattle. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 7.50.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with a 2-cent range so far today in
quiet trade. Fieldwork should expand in some areas this week with drier pockets
to the east and south with warmer temps expected to wait until next week, with
delays are expected to persist in Iowa/Minnesota area, with planting progress
at 5% vs. 14% on average. The second crop areas of Brazil look to remain on the
dry side in the near term as well, with some spotty rain. Ethanol futures have
edged back under the 1.49 mark, while margins remain positive, with blenders
being boosted by unleaded values at the upper end of the range. The export wire
has been quiet in recent days. On the July chart we are below the 20-day at
$3.92 with the 100-day at 3.80 remaining support.
Soybean trade is mixed with active two-sided trade so far during the day
session with trade testing nearby support before bouncing. Meal is flat to 1.00
lower and oil is flat to 10 points higher, with crush margins narrowing again.
The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term, allowing
for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper
real encouraging sales and export business, while Argentina bought 130,000
metric tons of beans split between old and new crop from the US to extend
coverage for crushers. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres,
with the weather challenges rolling acres over from wheat and corn. Planting
progress was 2%, same as average. On the July contract, trade has slipped below
the 50-day at $10.50, with the 100-day at $10.25 as the next level of support.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower with steady conditions and the stronger
dollar limiting upside with wheat grinding along in the lower end of the range.
Warmer conditions coming should help the crop maturity catch up with the cool
recent temps putting the crop behind. Spring wheat growing areas look more open
but have plenty of ground to cover. The weekly crop progress report left
conditions unchanged at 37% poor to very poor, and 31% good to excellent, and
13% headed, vs. 19% on average. Spring wheat is 3% planted vs. 25% on average.
On the July Kansas City contract support is the 200-day at $4.96 below that
with resistance the 20-day at 5.07, which we failed to hold to start the week.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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